Analyzing Michel Hayek’s predictions: Aoun cannot leave Nasrallah’s camp

By Ana

I’ve realized that a lot of my readers have been recently checking out my post featuring a translation of Michel Hayek’s predictions. I thought it would be nice to provide my own analysis on which possible predictions we are currently seeing materialize in light of the Tripoli events. I picked three as particularly interesting.

1. Two army officials will take part in somewhat of a precise operation. They will succeed in part of it, with one of them in danger. On the other hand, a third army official will fall in a separate operation.

This one is quite obscure, however, the only “precise operation” that the army has been involved in through military orders has been its continuous fight against the Fatah al-Islam. If this is the “precise operation” Hayek is refering to, then it seems that the operation will in general succeed although with obvious complications.

2. I see a picture including Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Progressive Socialist Party leader Chouf MP Walid Jumblatt. No comment.

This is interesting because after a very long time, we see these two politicians being pitted against the other in a fierce verbal battle.

3. The agreement between Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) will remain intact despite a conflict that will occur between them.

This, is the most interesting one because Aoun clearly set himself away from Nasrallah’s speech two days ago. However, it is also clear that it is politically impossible for the Christian General to leave the March 8 camp any time soon. The Memorandum of Understanding is flexible enough to keep Aoun at arm’s length from Nasrallah. However, the fact that Aoun made his press statement is a bad sign for Nasrallah. He knows that when September comes, he cannot count on Aoun to take the presidency and remain loyal to him at the same time.

And to my readers: what are your comments? Let me know if you see other predictions that are of relevance to the events we have been witnessing in the past few days.

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2 Comments

Filed under Lebanon

2 responses to “Analyzing Michel Hayek’s predictions: Aoun cannot leave Nasrallah’s camp

  1. Shunkleash

    => “Aoun clearly set himself away from Nasrallah’s speech two days ago. However, it is also clear that it is politically impossible for the Christian General to leave the March 8 camp any time soon. The Memorandum of Understanding is flexible enough to keep Aoun at arm’s length from Nasrallah. However, the fact that Aoun made his press statement is a bad sign for Nasrallah. He knows that when September comes, he cannot count on Aoun to take the presidency and remain loyal to him at the same time.”

    I have my own prediction on this…Aoun will go to France and be told he still has a home there…otherwise he will become a totally disgraced and ridiculed retard. ES FINITO!!

    Shunkleash

  2. Mangooz

    who cares if lebanon stayed or died ..

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